Using Probabilistic IDSS to Enhance Collaboration within Minnesota Pathfinder

Minnesota Pathfinder, a coordination between the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT), National Weather Service (NWS), Minnesota State Patrol (MSP), Regional Transportation Management Center (RTMC), MnDOT Communications and Private Weather has been in operation since the winter of 2017-2018. This coordination occurs in two forms. The first form uses an NWSChat channel that is focused more on the forecasts, impacts, and general communication. The second form is on-demand messaging coordination webinars hosted by MnDOT. With the upgrade to NWSChat 2.0, images and videos can now be shared. This upgrade has allowed forecasters from both the NWS and the private sector to provide enhanced support with much of this discussion being probabilistic in nature. This increased use of probabilistic information when providing Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) is one of the NWS Director’s Main Objectives, often referred to as Ken’s 10.

There are key thresholds that will change the operations for decision makers, and probabilistic messaging focused on these critical thresholds is a key tool. This is often done for snowfall/ice accumulation through probability of exceedance graphics. Another common probabilistic graphic is the low end/most likely/high end scenario. More recently, probabilistic WSSI has been utilized to convey impact levels. Ensemble systems like the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) have been used to convey precipitation type. With the release of Dynamic Ensembled-based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI) new tools have allowed for an expansion with greater probabilistic use of snow rates as well as new ways to visualize previously mentioned items.