Subseasonal Predictability of Fire Weather Metrics for Decision Support: The Standardized Fire Weather Research Database (Invited Presentation)

Wildfires have become increasingly destructive in recent decades and their impacts are felt nationwide. Though it is often difficult to predict ignitions, forecasters rely on fire weather metrics, including the Hot Dry Windy Index (HDWI), to estimate where and when conditions have the potential to exacerbate wildfire management efforts. These estimations are critical for (1) wildfire response and safety, (2) allocation of resources, and (3) communication of risk. As the impacts and extent of wildfires expand, we also need to expand the length and availability of fire weather forecast variables. Subseasonal forecast products (forecast through 35-45 days) are now available from the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), but are largely untested. Our cross-sector approach has identified key fire weather metrics needed by wildfire operational users in the field. We have also directly worked with wildfire decision makers to determine what level of forecast skill, reliability, and testing must be done to earn trust and ensure future use of fire weather forecast data at multiple lead times.

Our work has generated a database of 10+ fire weather variables for UFS and SubX retrospective forecasts and multiple reanalysis datasets at various spatiotemporal resolutions (NCEP, ERA5, NARR, HRRR, NAM12, CONUS404). The Standardized Fire Weather Research Database (sFWRD) provides a simple method for evaluating fire weather forecast skill across scales and sources with minimal spin up. We have also used the four available UFS prototypes to generate different versions of the retrospective forecasts with iterative post-processing steps, including statistical downscaling, machine learning downscaling, and multi-prototype means. With data useability and consistency in mind, the fire weather community (both researcher and end-users) can use the sFWRD database with minimal spin-up to maximize research impacts. In this session, we will cover project updates including (a) insights from the cross-sector approach, (b) sFWRD database and code availability, (c) findings from preliminary analysis, and (d) outlook on continued work. We invite open discussion on the next steps and collaborations.