The Impact of Magnetograms on Real-time Solar Wind Prediction

An accurate solar wind background model is critical for space weather applications, which includes correctly modeling and predicting the arrival of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). Currently, no global 3-D numerical first-principles models are used, primarily because of two reasons: 1. high computational cost; 2. the uncertainty of the input parameters. In this presentation, we discuss the impact of using different magnetograms on the solar wind prediction. We have performed detailed studies comparing the optimal simulated solar wind driven from both GONG and ADAPT-GONG magnetograms in the last solar cycle. We have derived similar empirical formulas to prescribe the Poynting flux parameter to achieve reasonable solar wind predictions, based on the open field area or the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field in the open field regions. Finally, we report that ADAPT-GONG magnetograms can consistently provide better comparisons with 1 au solar wind observations than GONG magnetograms, based on the best simulations selected by the minimum of the average curve distance for the solar wind speed and density.