Prediciton and Projection of Runoff and Hydrological Extremes for the Yellow River Basin in China

S2S and seasonal runoff and hydrological extremes prediction with one-way coupled climate model and chronological model was explore, and the changes in runoff, floods, droughts and ecological flows were projected under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 for the 21th century for the Yellow River Basin, China. The results indicate that: (1) Prediction skill of runoff is higher in winter than in summer, higher for anomaly category than normal category, higher for droughts than floods. (2) Annual runoff will slightly increase, but the Yellow River Basin will be contentiously threatened by water shortage under scenarios SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 in the next years in the 21th century. (3)The climate change will alleviate the negative impact of human activities on ecological flows to some extent, with the most under scenarios SSP585, and the most in winter but the least in summer and autumn.