CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence: All-Clear Solar Energetic Particle Forecast

The Space Weather Center of Excellence (SWxC) CLEAR is a five year project funded by NASA to build a forecast framework for solar energetic particles (SEPs). SEPs are hazardous not only to humans but also to electronics and other sensitive components in space, affecting satellite operations. The sparsity and high variability in terms of intensity, duration, composition, and energy spectra of solar energetic particle events make them difficult to predict. The CLEAR Center will develop, test and validate a self-contained, modular (“plug and play”) framework that includes all major elements impacting SEPs in the inner heliosphere: 4π maps of photospheric magnetic fields, corona (1 − 20 Rs), inner and middle heliosphere (0.1 AU to Jupiter’s orbit), magnetic connectivity between the solar surface and any point in the inner/middle heliosphere, flare/CME initiation, SEP seed population, flare and shock acceleration, and energetic particle transport. We will integrate physics-based, empirical, and machine learning models to deliver capabilities for robust and quantifiable forecasts of the space radiation, caused by SEPs, of up to 24 hours. In this presentation, we will summarize the progress the CLEAR team has accomplished in the first year, including the development and the benchmark SEP dataset, the validation of CME generation modules (Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low (EEGGL) and Titov Demouline (TD)), and the development of the machine learning models. We will also discuss the development and validation plan in the following years.