Increased Saharan Dust Decreases African Solar Photovoltaics Potential Generation through Dust-Atmosphere Interactions

Africa's renewable energy transition holds great promise, particularly due to its abundant solar resources. However, the continent faces a unique challenge: the Sahara Desert, Earth's largest dust source, which can significantly impact solar energy generation. This research examines how increased African dust emissions affect the potential for solar photovoltaic (PV) power production across the continent. Our study employs the 2xdust experiment from the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). By considering dust optical properties, radiative effects, and cloud interactions, we provide a comprehensive assessment of their collective impact on PV potential.The findings reveal a consistent decrease in PV potential throughout North Africa and the Sahel. In the most affected regions, reductions range from 0.04 to over 0.06 kWh/kWp. Notably, we identify a non-linear relationship between dust emissions and solar PV potential, highlighting the intricate interplay of dust-related processes. This research breaks new ground by thoroughly examining how dust representation in climate models influences solar PV performance predictions. Our analysis uncovers significant variations in predicted impacts across models with different dust bin representations, underscoring the complexity of dust-climate interactions and the need for improved dust modeling in climate simulations. The study also emphasizes the critical role of dust-cloud interactions. Models that treat dust as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) yield markedly different results compared to those that do not. For instance, CCN models show an average temperature change of -0.2419°C, while non-CCN models indicate -0.0243°C. Similarly, for radiative flux at the surface, CCN models average -5.0998 W/m² compared to -4.1090 W/m² for non-CCN models. Our findings contribute to the understanding of dust-solar interactions and provide valuable insights for optimizing solar energy resources in Africa. By elucidating the complex impacts of increased dust emissions on PV potential, this research offers crucial guidance for long-term energy planning and climate adaptation strategies in one of the world's most promising regions for solar energy development.