Recognizing Appalachia: Rural Engagement to Empower Climate Resilience in a Vital Yet Overlooked Region

The Appalachian region, home to 26 million Americans, stands as a testament to the resilience of its people and the enduring strength of its communities. Rich in natural beauty and cultural heritage, it is the most heavily forested and biodiverse area in the United States. However, the region, which has long fueled national economic growth through its natural resources, is now bearing the environmental and social costs of this extraction, compounded by the accelerating impacts of climate change. As floods, wildfires, and other climate-related risks intensify, Appalachia faces unique challenges that demand urgent and tailored responses. Yet, despite its critical importance, the region remains underrepresented in national climate research and policy, with tools and strategies often failing to address its specific needs.

Two federally funded projects under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) are supporting research efforts at NOAA NCEI and NCICS to identify research gaps and provide the tools necessary to enhance climate resilience in Appalachia.

The first project, State of the Flood, addresses one of the most pressing climate impacts in Appalachia: extreme precipitation and the resulting floods and landslides. Through this project, we are developing new flood data products that integrate climatological and socioeconomic factors, including the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), to provide a more equitable and accurate assessment of flood risks. This effort is essential for a region where many are underinsured or uninsured, complicating recovery and long-term resilience. Additionally, we are working with the emerging Industry Proving Grounds (IPG) working group on Insurance/Reinsurance to ensure that the complexities of insurance challenges in this region are fully explored and addressed.

The second project, FIRE13: Application of Machine Learning to Monitoring and Prediction of Wildfire Potential at Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Timescale, aims to predict wildfire risks using advanced AI/ML techniques. In a region where the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) is rapidly expanding, and where worsening droughts, heatwaves, and changes to the hydrologic cycle are becoming more frequent, the ability to accurately forecast wildfire potential is crucial. Appalachians, like most Americans east of the Rockies, are largely unaccustomed and therefore unprepared for the scale and severity of wildfires that a changing climate is beginning to unleash, as exemplified by the 2016 Great Smoky Mountains fires that claimed 14 lives and became one of the largest natural disasters in Tennessee history. The region’s mountainous, forested terrain and numerous rural, economically challenged communities pose significant challenges for wildfire modeling, public policy, and community engagement. Our work focuses on engaging with these communities to ensure that the tools we develop are both scientifically robust and practically applicable in these complex environments.

This abstract tells the story of a region on the front lines of climate change, a region whose resilience is critical not just to its own future, but to the nation’s as well. This presentation will provide information and updates on these two projects and discuss approaches to engagement that are unique to this region.