Tornado Warnings, Lead Times, and Death

Intuitively people believe that when a tornado has longer lead time, the probability of having fatalities in the event will reduce. Sutter and Simmons (2009) created a model to qualitatively prove the effects of lead time on death; however, the results were inconclusive due to finding no obvious trend. Using data provided by the National Weather Center Performance Management Branch’s verification system starting in January 1986 to December 2023, lead time is examined for tornadoes warned in advanced over the last few decades based on characteristics of the tornado event. Using probabilistic graphs, three conclusions can be made about the relationship between tornado warnings, lead time, and death: the distribution of lead time has not changed over time, forecasters are issuing more shorter lead times for weak tornadoes than ever before, and there is no statistically significant relationship between death and lead time.