NOAA’s Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system will provide critical information to address emerging environmental challenges, enabling ecological forecasting related to weather, ocean conditions, and climate change which impact the security and well-being of the Western Hemisphere. Understanding the economic and social benefits of satellite-derived oceanographic products is vital for maximizing NOAA’s investments. Ocean color observations from the GeoXO satellite (GeoXO OCX), to be launched in 2032, will contribute to improvements in Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) forecasts via near real-time data—six times the temporal resolution of current systems, and enhanced spatial and hyperspectral capabilities.
Recent NOAA-funded research by TBD Economics quantified the potential economic benefits of GeoXO OCX in mitigating Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) damages across the U.S. The study, focusing on the contiguous United States, estimated that GeoXO OCX could reduce HAB-related costs by $158 million to $234 million annually, amounting to $2.1 billion to $3.1 billion over its operational lifetime. This potential is derived from improved data quality and the ability to provide more accurate and frequent observations, leading to improved forecasts and societal outcomes.
The Value of Information (VOI) methodology was employed to understand the connection between satellite observational improvements and improved societal outcomes. The research included stakeholder interviews to gauge the anticipated impact of GeoXO OCX on HAB management outcomes through improved ecological forecasts. These discussions revealed that the enhanced capabilities of GeoXO OCX are expected to significantly improve product accuracy and forecasting efficiency, benefiting sectors such as commercial and recreational fishing, tourism, and public health. The values identified assume the continuation of the current suite of observing systems, noting that in-situ measurements are currently relied upon as a primary information source in HAB mitigation and management efforts.
This study underscores the value of integrating advanced satellite observations into ecological forecasting and highlights the transformative potential of GeoXO OCX in managing and mitigating the impacts of HABs. This presentation will present details on the results of the study, including estimates on the annual damage costs from HAB-events, insights from users of ocean color information, and key findings on the industries that have the potential to receive the greatest benefits from GeoXO OCX.
While the current study represents an improvement over past estimates of the value of GeoXO ocean color observations, the benefits to mitigating the impacts of HAB events derived in this study are only a small portion of the many benefits streams that the new OCX instrument will support. Much work remains to be done to assess the full value of the GeoXO OCX instrument. For example, one set of value chains that have yet to be assessed in any of the GeoXO ocean color studies is related to providing inputs to fisheries models that could be used to increase the long-term value of commercial harvests by reducing overfishing in some years and relaxing catch limits in other years. The improvements to hypoxia forecasts and monitoring could have similar benefits to commercial and recreational fishing, and contributions to monitoring and prediction of sargassum could have benefits for coastal tourism. In addition, the geographic scope of the current analysis is limited to CONUS. Additional studies of the past and anticipated future economic effects of HAB events in Alaska, Hawaii, and US territories could be used to provide more complete benefit estimates.
Keywords: Coast, Communities of Practice, Environmental Sustainability, Forecasting System, Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences, Economic value, ocean color, ecological forecasting, value of observations, satellite observation, harmful algal blooms
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