Investigating the Relationship Between Atmospheric Rivers & Ice Jam Events Through Temperature Fluctuations in New York from 1988-2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the subject of extensive research on the west coast of the United States, but less so in the Northeast region. Likewise, ice jams (IJs) have not received as much research, despite being potentially fatal events. This study aims to bridge the gap between these two phenomena by investigating the relationship between Northeast ARs and IJ events through the lens of temperature fluctuations. IJs were assigned to watersheds across NY state, and hourly IVT data from the ECMWF was utilized to determine if an AR arrived or was present on the ice jam date (IJD). Ten weather stations across NY were used to approximate temperatures and wind speeds. Of 492 IJs from 1988-2017, ~50% featured one coincident AR (CoAR), ~4% featured two CoARs, and ~46% did not have any CoARs. The duration, max IVT, and AR scale number of CoARs and non-CoARs were determined to be significantly different from one another using a confidence value of p < 0.01. For IJs with no CoARs, the average temperature remains relatively constant below 0 ^oC, unlike IJs with CoARs which increase to a maximum temperature above 0 ^oC. A similar pattern occurs with the daily average wind speeds. Thus, localized warm air advection may be enhanced by CoARs, which would then increase the melting of riverine ice during ice jam events.