Thursday, 16 January 2025: 9:30 AM
344 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Handout (2.1 MB)
Inclement weather is known to negatively impact traffic safety and the mobility of drivers
on roads. In a typical year, one-fifth of all vehicle crashes in the United States are caused by
some form of adverse weather. As a result, approximately 5,000 people are killed in these
crashes, accounting for one-sixth of all vehicle crash fatalities every year. In the past decade,
abnormal sea surface temperature variations due to teleconnections such as the El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have occurred more often, significantly impacting annual precipitation
values for the southmost and northmost United States. When annual precipitation values are
higher than normal, the risk of being involved in a weather-related crash increases. However, the
relationship between fatal weather crashes and ENSO teleconnection is understudied. In order to
solve this limitation, this study examined the relationship between fatal weather-related crashes
and ENSO teleconnections to better understand subseasonal-to-seasonal variability in weather
impacts to surface transportation and risk communication. States that are part of the contiguous
United States were considered when assessing such a link, and fatal vehicular crash data was
extracted through the Fatal Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Additionally, the Niño 3.4 Index
was used for identifying ENSO types by season. Preliminary results found that the number of
fatal weather-related crashes increased with time, but did not correlate directly with El Niño or
La Niña years. These findings indicate that weather-related crash anomalies become more
variable during an El Niño or a La Niña, especially during periods when anomalies are more
negative.
on roads. In a typical year, one-fifth of all vehicle crashes in the United States are caused by
some form of adverse weather. As a result, approximately 5,000 people are killed in these
crashes, accounting for one-sixth of all vehicle crash fatalities every year. In the past decade,
abnormal sea surface temperature variations due to teleconnections such as the El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have occurred more often, significantly impacting annual precipitation
values for the southmost and northmost United States. When annual precipitation values are
higher than normal, the risk of being involved in a weather-related crash increases. However, the
relationship between fatal weather crashes and ENSO teleconnection is understudied. In order to
solve this limitation, this study examined the relationship between fatal weather-related crashes
and ENSO teleconnections to better understand subseasonal-to-seasonal variability in weather
impacts to surface transportation and risk communication. States that are part of the contiguous
United States were considered when assessing such a link, and fatal vehicular crash data was
extracted through the Fatal Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Additionally, the Niño 3.4 Index
was used for identifying ENSO types by season. Preliminary results found that the number of
fatal weather-related crashes increased with time, but did not correlate directly with El Niño or
La Niña years. These findings indicate that weather-related crash anomalies become more
variable during an El Niño or a La Niña, especially during periods when anomalies are more
negative.
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