Toward Quantifying the Overlap Between Severe Weather and Hurricane Seasons in the Southeast United States

The peak of severe weather season extends from late-winter to early-spring across the southeast United States, whereas the traditional Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season begins on 1 June and ends on 30 November. However, the peak of severe weather season anecdotally appears to increasingly overlap with the preparation period for hurricane season. An increasing overlap between the seasons could potentially hinder peoples’ ability to adequately prepare for hurricanes, severe weather, and their related hazards. This motivates our assessment of severe-weather and hurricane seasons are increasing in the extent to which they overlap in the southeast United States. We have previously used observed severe-weather occurrences to define the severe-weather season and assess its long-term trends on a county-by-county basis across the United States. Now, utilizing historical hurricane and tropical storm track and watch/warning data sourced from the National Hurricane Center, this study aims to assess and diagnose hurricane season on a similar county-by-county basis. These data aim to help diagnose potential overlaps in regional hurricane and severe-weather season in the Southeastern United States and how those overlaps may have changed. The presentation will include initial diagnoses of severe-weather and hurricane seasons over a 27-year period between 1997-2023. Future work will entail using potential overlap assessments to build-on current works, papers, and discussions that exist within the atmospheric sciences by adding a psychological and sociological explanation to the physical science, primarily focusing on how people in the Southeastern United States perceive incoming severe-weather events during hurricane preparation periods.