Impact of Hurricane Ian Forecast Cone Interpretation on Evacuation Decision Making of Individuals Aged 55 and Older

In 2022 Hurricane Ian affected Pinellas County Florida. Pinellas County has a large population of adults aged 55+ (42.5%), which tends to be a more vulnerable age group to death and injury during hurricane events. Before landfall, many forecast cones were released but were interpreted in many ways. The purpose of this project is to investigate if there is a relationship between cone interpretation and evacuation in 55+ adults. Florida residents in the path of Hurricane Ian were administered an anonymous survey, available in both English and Spanish, via Qualtrics from October 9, 2022, to April 10, 2023. The survey included questions about forecast cone interpretation and was publicized using flyers with a link to the survey and social media. Community partners of USF were asked to send it to their distribution lists and to post it on their social media and websites. Data was retrieved from Qualtrics and transferred to R Studio for sub setting to 55+ adults in Pinellas County, categorization, cleaning, and organization in preparation for statistical analyses. IBM SPSS Version 29 was employed for statistical data analysis. A logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the relationship between cone interpretation and evacuation decision made. Statistical significance was set at p < .05 and all confidence intervals (CI) constructed at 95%. The data from Likert questions The size of the cone represents the size of the storm (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.006 - 1.270]) and Areas outside the cone are not at risk to hurricane impacts (OR = 1.223, CI 95% [1.003-1.492]) proved to be statistically significant. This means that those who fully agreed with these statements on the 5-point Likert scale were more likely to evacuate. In conclusion 55+ aged adults in Pinellas County who misinterpreted the Hurricane Ian forecast cone were more likely to evacuate. Further investigation would be required to understand the factors that contributed to this result.