MJO Variation Due to Climate Change

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a 30-45 day intra-seasonal oscillation that explains the greatest variability in tropical rainfall. It is defined by an eastward propagating mesoscale signal of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall that has known planetary-scale atmospheric impacts. The MJO initiates near the Indian / Western Pacific Oceans, before slowly propagating eastward, and typically dispelling in the Eastern Pacific Ocean cold tongue. This recurring intra-seasonal feature has eight major phases, and, while it is prominent over the Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, it can exist in the Tropical Atlantic at lower amplitudes. With climate change and global warming notably impacting our planet’s atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, this study aims to investigate potential variation in MJO magnitude in a warming climate, referencing its influence on other tropical phenomena (like ENSO and tropical storm cyclogenesis), through statistical analysis of the long-term trends in phase data, RMM1 and RMM2 data, and by examining potential consequences in phases of particular interest.