458817 Severe Thunderstorm Wind Fatalities: A Study on Storm Speed and Impact

Sunday, 12 January 2025
Hall C (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Alycia T Triplett, NCAS-M II, Washington, DC

High wind events have ranked as the fourth leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the U.S. over the past decade. This study investigates the relationship between storm speed and fatalities linked to severe thunderstorm wind events. A thunderstorm is classified as severe when wind speeds reach or exceed 58 mph. The analysis focused on U.S. severe thunderstorm events that were warned and resulted in at least one wind-related fatality. Data from 2017 to 2020 were gathered using the Gibson Ridge 2 Analyst to assess the storm speed and direction of these fatal events, which were then compared to the forecasted speed and direction in the corresponding warnings. In total, 104 events were analyzed, accounting for 127 fatalities. The average forecasted storm speed was 45 mph, with 52% of the fatal events recording observed speeds of 45 mph or higher, and 57% meeting or exceeding the severe thunderstorm wind criterion of 58 mph. The findings suggest that faster-moving storms may increase the risk of fatalities during severe thunderstorm events. Enhancing warning messaging and providing more precise, location-based information could improve preparedness for both National Weather Service partners and the public.
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