Physical Vulnerability to Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes in Mexico

Tropical cyclones significantly threaten coastal cities, with heavy rainfall, storm surge, and high winds exacerbating their impact, particularly during rapid intensification (RI) events. Hurricane Otis (2023) exemplifies this risk, rapidly escalating to Category 5 status and striking Acapulco, Mexico, with little warning. Many communities lack the infrastructure and preparedness to withstand such powerful storms, making them particularly vulnerable. To address this, the Social Vulnerability Index to Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes in Mexico (SoVI RIM) was developed, utilizing socioeconomic data from the Mexican census to assess vulnerability. Employing principal component analysis, 26 socioeconomic variables were categorized into five groups to create a social vulnerability score for municipalities. Additionally, historical tracks of RI hurricanes from 1950 to 2024 were analyzed to identify landfall points, further informing vulnerability assessments. The final SoVI RIM combines social vulnerability with normalized landfall points, highlighting regions at increased risk. Key areas identified include the Yucatán Peninsula, Guerrero, and Veracruz, underscoring their susceptibility to the impacts of RI hurricanes. This index aims to inform disaster preparedness and response strategies in Mexico’s most vulnerable regions.