How hard does it actually rain in Maryland?: Evaluating the accuracy of Atlas 14’s rainfall rate estimates based on 20th century observational statistical analysis in comparison to 21st century high-temporal observations, and its implications for Maryland

This study evaluates the accuracy of NOAA Atlas 14 in the state of Maryland. NOAA Atlas is the nation's standard for estimating extreme rainfall event magnitude and frequency. However, Atlas 14 analysis stopped after December 2000, potentially limiting its accuracy in the face of evolving climate patterns. By comparing its 20th-century estimates to rainfall data from the 21st century, including from high-temporal resolution observations from modern meteorological platforms, including the Maryland Mesonet and Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) 1-minute data, this research investigates how Atlas 14 estimates compare modern to real-world observations. This work aims to highlight potential statistical changes in rainfall intensity and frequency over time. The findings aim to reveal evolving rainfall patterns in Maryland, offering insight into how shifts in climate may impact precipitation trends and its implications for flood risk and infrastructure.