Exploring the Influence of Large-Scale Environmental Factors on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Warming Climate

According to the IPCC AR6 report, global tropical cyclone intensities are expected to increase by 1 to 10% on average under a 2-degree Celsius global warming scenario. This increase could result in a larger percentage rise in the destructive potential of individual storms, assuming no reduction in storm size, though the response of storm size to anthropogenic warming remains uncertain. The objective of this research is to examine the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming climate within the Atlantic Basin using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) model. We aim to create a climatological database to categorize RI TCs and identify patterns of RI occurrences across the Atlantic Basin, with a focus on the eastern U.S. seaboard. While forecasting changes in TC intensity has improved in recent years, predicting rapid intensification remains a significant challenge. Previous studies have shown that TC intensity variability is influenced by the complex interaction of multiple factors, including vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, upper ocean temperatures, ocean heat content, cloud microphysics, air-sea interactions, and inner core dynamics and thermodynamics. These factors are known to play a key role in tropical cyclone rapid intensification. The HAFS model will investigate the relationship between large-scale environmental forces and the subsequent development of tropical cyclone structure and convection during rapid intensification. Understanding how environmental conditions in different regions within the Atlantic Basin either support or hinder rapid intensification is crucial.