Session 1 Advancements in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation and Drought Predictions and Forecasts, Part I

Monday, 13 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
352 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 13th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Submitters:
Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD; David O. Benson, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA and David Benson, Office of Ocean and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; David Benson, Office of Ocean and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD and Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD

This session focuses on the dynamic processes influencing subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation patterns and drought conditions, exploring recent advances in S2S prediction methodologies. Contributions are invited on the impact of large-scale oceanic, land, and atmospheric phenomena including, but not limited to, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and their impacts on precipitation and drought predictions. Presentations that utilize statistical and dynamical models, as well as multi-model ensembles, to improve the reliability of S2S precipitation and drought forecasts are encouraged. 

This session also seeks to address the challenges of translating scientific advancements into actionable tools for sectors like water resource management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness. Emphasis will be placed on collaborative approaches that integrate hydrological models, S2S and climate forecasts, and end user engagement to develop resilient water management practices. Contributions that incorporate user feedback to refine forecasts and improve usability in decision-making contexts, as well as those that evaluate the effectiveness of these tools in real-world applications, are particularly encouraged. This session aims to provide a comprehensive overview of current capabilities in predicting precipitation and drought conditions on S2S timescales and their implications for practical applications

Papers:
8:30 AM
1.1
Developing a Framework for Evaluating Sources of Predictability for Extreme Events on Subseasonal Timescales in Southeast Asia & Latin America
Gabrielle R. H. Brown, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Pegion

8:45 AM
1.2
NCEP Global Drought Early Warning System for Food Security: Current Status and Challenges
Li Xu, CPC, College Park, MD; and M. Robjhon, Y. Pan, W. M. Thiaw, and Y. Fan

9:00 AM
1.3
Extreme Warm Land Temperature in Spring 2024 in Tibetan Plateau and Subsequent June Catastrophic Flood in Southern Yangtze River and Drought to the North - a Typical GEWEX/LS4P Scenario under Warm Climate
Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and Q. Li, X. Kong, H. P. Nayak, A. A. Boone, T. Yao, A. Wang, and I. Diallo

9:15 AM
1.4
Postprocessing Subseasonal Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts in the Pacific Islands Using Process-Informed and Statistical Techniques
Katie Kowal, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and B. Singh, G. E. Dines, E. B. Bekele, Z. T. Segele, M. Robjhon, and W. M. Thiaw

9:30 AM
1.5
Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole
Zewdu Tessema Segele, NCEP, Hyattsville, MD; and E. B. Bekele and W. M. Thiaw

9:45 AM
1.6
Global Circulation Models-Based Prediction of Rainfall Onset for Early Warning in the Sahel Region of West Africa
William Agyakwah, NOAA, College Park, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; and Z. T. Segele, E. B. Bekele, and W. M. Thiaw

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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