Session 10 Predictions in the Coastal Environment: From Weather to Seasonal Timescales and Beyond

Wednesday, 15 January 2025: 10:45 AM-12:00 PM
218 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Symposium on the Coastal Environment
Cochairs:
John A Callahan, University of Delaware, Newark, DE and Kendra M. Dresback

Coastal zones are unique and dynamic environments. The communities and natural ecosystems along our coasts are under continuous threat from numerous hazards, such as coastal flooding, high tides, strong waves, high winds, heavy precipitation, erosion, and more, often occurring simultaneously and across multiple timescales.  The complex dynamics and interactions among atmospheric, oceanic, and land processes lead to sharp gradients in environmental conditions and can make predictions extremely difficult. Yet, timely and accurate predictions of environmental conditions are essential in emergency management preparedness and climate planning activities.  This session invites submissions on the development and/or application of coastal predictions at either weather (up to approximately 10 days) or climate (weeks to decades) time scales, with a particular emphasis on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) or seasonal to annual (S2A) time scales. Submissions may be based on observations (field-based, airborne/satellite remote sensing) or modeling (numerical, statistical, AI/ML) that examine coastal processes and their interactions to aid in the prediction of the magnitude or frequency of coastal hazards.  Topics are also welcome that include downscaling techniques, compound and extreme events, case studies, model coupling, skill assessments, and more. 

Papers:
10:45 AM
10.1
Using a Hybrid Deep Learning and Statistical Approach to Enhance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts for Coastal Compound Flooding
Lujun Zhang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Yang, K. M. Dresback, C. M. Szpilka, and R. L. Kolar

11:00 AM
10.2
Recent Developments in NOAA’s Subseasonal to Annual High Tide Flooding Outlooks
John A Callahan, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Dusek, A. Keeney, K. Kavanaugh, J. Ratcliff, and M. Conlin

11:15 AM
10.3
Long-Term Contribution of Wind-Generated Waves to the Mean and Extreme Sea Level in Coastal Waters of U.S. East and Gulf Coasts
A S M Alauddin Al Azad, Stevens Institute of Technology, West New York, NJ; and R. Marsooli

11:30 AM
10.4
Developing Next Generation of the Great Lakes Coastal Forecast Modeling System
Brooke Odstrchel, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. Titze, D. Cannon, Y. Hong, M. Mattwig, J. Riley, and J. C. Feyen

11:45 AM
10.5
Ensemble Ice Forecasting for the Laurentian Great Lakes Region
Bryan Mroczka, GLERL, Northville, MI; and D. M. Wright

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