1B Extreme Precipitation I

Monday, 13 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
210 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 39th Conference on Hydrology; and the 33rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/29th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Cochairs:
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX; Sarah Marie Trojniak; Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, CIMMS, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Norman, OK and Benjamin J. Moore, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO

This session invites papers on all aspects of extreme precipitation, including atmospheric river (AR) events, convective storms, hurricanes, typhoons, and extreme snowfall events, as well as their relationship to floods and hydrologic impacts. Possible topics include observations (rain gauge networks, ground-based radar, satellite retrievals, multi-sensor fusion, etc.), modeling, exploration of key physical processes, short-term and seasonal prediction, orographic and elevation-based relationships, climate change, and risk assessment. Papers exploring the causes and consequences of individual extreme precipitation events that cause floods or terminate droughts, details of the relationship between extreme precipitation and flooding, extreme snowfall accumulation and melt, as well as key factors that inform decisions around changing extreme precipitation and flood risk are particularly encouraged.

Submitters:  Kelly M. Mahoney, Earth System Research Laboratories/ Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA, BOULDER, CO; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; Sarah Marie Trojniak, Systems Research Group, NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD and Victor A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Northern Illinois Univ., Dekalb, IL

Papers:
9:00 AM
1B.3
An Evaluation of the Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Extreme Precipitation Events between 2012-2023
Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Mahoney, D. R. Novak, J. A. Nelson Jr., and B. S. Albright

9:15 AM
1B.4
A Climatology of the Hight Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) Heavy Rainfall Probabilities
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., D. R. Stovern, J. L. Bytheway, and K. M. Mahoney

9:30 AM
1B.5
Ensemble Model Forecast Performance of HREF and REFS for 2024 Extreme Precipitation Cases
Amanda Back, NOAA GSL, Boulder, CO; and T. I. Alcott, D. Dowell, E. P. James, T. T. Ladwig, and S. Murdzek

9:45 AM
1B.6
Predicting Excessive Rainfall with Large and Small Ensembles: Does Adding Members Add Value?
Trevor Alcott, OAR, BOULDER, CO; and D. Dowell, A. Back, E. P. James, S. Murdzek, J. L. Bytheway, and K. M. Mahoney

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner