Session 13 What Now?: Leveraging Probabilistic Forecasts for Better Risk Communication and User Clarity

Thursday, 16 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
342 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 13th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation
Chair:
Sean Robert Ernst, Center for Risk and Crisis Management, Norman, OK
Cochairs:
Danielle Nagele, PhD, NWS, AFSO, Silver Spring, MD and Elizabeth Fairchild Meister

This session highlights probabilistic forecasting topics that build off last year's "What if..." session question. Our What if... presenter from last year, Dr. Sean Ernst, will chair this session and lead discussion afterwards with the submitting authors. 

Papers:
8:30 AM
13.1
Contemporary Practices and Guidance for Communicating Probability Information
Kimberly E. Klockow McClain, CIMMS, Norman, OK

8:45 AM
13.2
People Don't Understand Probabilities - or Do They?
Ken Robin Mylne, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and H. Roberts, CMet, MSc

Handout (2.4 MB)

9:00 AM
13.3
Snow much uncertainty: Probabilistic snowfall range perceptions, preferences, and understanding among the public
Robert Prestley, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Demuth, J. Ripberger, A. L. Bitterman, A. C. Wanless, M. Krocak, A. B. Schumacher, and C. D. Wirz

9:15 AM
13.4
Probabilistic Precipitation Portal: Advancing ProbSnow and ProbQPF into a Centralized Tool for IDSS
Connor Cozad, NOAA/NWS/WPC | Lynker, College Park, MD; and B. Veenhuis, T. Huntemann, E. M. Guillot, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:30 AM
13.5
Improving Forecast Product Design, Delivery and Accessibility: Moving Beyond Just Product Development with a Focus on Precipitation Products
Kathryn Semmens, Nurture Nature Center, Easton, PA; and R. A. H. Carr, B. Montz, K. Maxfield, J. A. Nelson Jr., D. Bright, and E. Bower

9:45 AM
Mini-Panel Discussion with All Authors

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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