Description:

As threats from a changing climate continue to rise, so does our Nation’s need for accurate and timely predictions to sustain our coastal ecosystems (and their services), economy, national security, and lives and livelihoods. Defined as projections of “the state of ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural capital, with fully specified uncertainties”, ecological forecasting requires the integration of physical, biological, and social sciences. Recent events that tie quality and sustainability of human lives and livelihoods with economic decisions on the ecosystem services of the planet are clear demonstration that the future of Earth System models and forecasts must include an ecological component which are informed by reliable and accurate coastal models. In 2024, the AMS membership approved a formal Statement on the Future of Ecological Forecasting to accelerate scientific understanding, community building, and policies by which to advance ecological forecasting and deliver products and services across scales and domains. The Statement provides a unifying framework and a Call to Action by which to connect ecologists and ecological forecasting with the modeling and forecasting expertise and operational infrastructure of the weather, water, and climate communities.

More than half the world's population, or about 3 billion people, live within 60 miles distance from the coast. In the United States, Coastal communities are home to 42% of the U.S. population, contribute 48% to the Gross Domestic Product, and are projected to continue growing and developing. Coastal ecological systems are tightly coupled to human systems, including culture and population, and respond rapidly to human decisions. This coupled representation of coastal ecosystem dynamics, human action, response, and outcome illuminates the challenges of predicting natural-human system states and behaviors, but also indicates opportunities to improve decision support and our understanding of human-natural system predictability. For example, fisheries decision making (food security) requires reliable forecasts of the ecosystem state, services, and natural capital. However, as with weather and climate, ecosystem baselines are shifting, and transient conditions are the “new normal.” We now face an altered set of questions about the natural world, and increased urgency to protect people, their livelihoods, and their communities. In short, the demand for operationalization of ecological predictions as part of the National forecasting infrastructure is increasing, reflected by major federal funding commitments.

The proposed Symposium builds on the historical significance of the AMS by introducing life to the earth system forecasting perspective in the AMS 2025 conference theme. The speakers, panels, and submitted abstracts will include leading scientists, managers, and stakeholders, who will provide insights on the state of current research, data, programmatic frameworks, and mechanisms to operationalize coastal ecological forecasts. The sessions will help create understanding of how ecology, meteorology, and sociology overlap and must be applied together to solve coastal ecological forecasting issues across scales and chart the course for a thriving planet.