P2.10
Probabilistic forecast of MAP cases using two different limited-area models
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Andrea Montani, ARPA, Bologna, Italy; and C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, D. Cesari, and T. Paccagnella
The predictability of some MAP IOPs is investigated by considering the performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on five selected members of ECMWF EPS. For the investigated case studies, two different limited-area models (one hydrostatic and one non-hydrostatic) are used to generate LEPS and the forecast sensitivity to the type of limited-area model is studied for ranges between 72 and 120 hours. The attention is focused on the probabilistic prediction of total precipitation, so as to assess the possibility to issue flood alerts on the basis of probability maps generated by the limited-area models. Different model configurations are tested and the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast is studied.
In all configurations, LEPS turns out to perform better than EPS to predict small scales, local severe events, thanks to the higher horizontal resolution and to the more accurate description of orographic and mesoscale-related processes. The positive impact of using a non-hydrostatic model to generate LEPS is also noticeable.
Poster Session 2, Orographic Precipitation/Operational and Numerical Weather Prediction (with Coffee Break)
Wednesday, 19 June 2002, 9:15 AM-11:00 AM
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