Thursday, 20 June 2002
Tests of 2-D Simulations for Gust Probability Forecastng in CAT over a Mountainous Region
Comparison of aircraft measurements with high resolution two dimensional simulations of air flow shows that simulations now efficiently and accurately capture wind disturbances (such as gusts and CAT) which develop within layers of vertical shear and wavebreaking over mountainous regions. Two dimensional models appear attractive for use as an efficient regional CAT forecast tool, since they do
not require vast computational resources.
We present preliminary CAT simulations which are obtained by using unlimited two dimensional strips of simulation planes alligned with the mean wind at low level. The combined results interpreted as a three dimensional fields reveal a realistic distribution of waves and gusts in mountainous regions.
We will perform detailed analyses of these simulations to gain better understanding of the dynamical processes in which gusts develop. We will verify these simulations by comparing them with available observations.
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