Two important concerns for Naval operations in the Persian Gulf involve visibility degradation due to aerosols and electromagnetic refractivity, both of which are sensitive to local mesoscale variations in topographic and diurnal forcing. In this study we examine high-resolution (9 km) forecasts from the Navy's coupled ocean/atmosphere mesoscale prediction system (COAMPS) simulating a series of dust storms that occurred in Oct 2000. The COAMPS model includes an embedded aerosol tracer module providing the dust source region and forecasting 3-dimensional fields of aerosol concentration.

The horizontal distribution of dust plumes during three separate events were captured on AVHRR visible satellite imagery. From COAMPS temporal and spatial data, we evaluate the forecast evolution of the dust storms, as well as transitions and patterns in ducting conditions over the Gulf. Diurnal circulations associated with the adjacent Zagros Mountains are found to be an influencing factor in duct strength. While observations of meteorological conditions are sparse in this region, numerous surface and five rawinsonde sites are used for model validation.