Arctic cyclone climatology: present and future

The Arctic waters and coastal areas have always been prone to severe weather due to high impact cyclone events, such as polar lows or major cold air outbreaks. Here we present a climatology of cyclones obtained with the University of Melbourne cyclone tracking routine. The data used is from a high-resolution model currently under development at GFDL, namely the cubed sphere global model. The model is run with a resolution of 25 and 50 km, respectively, and with a full suite of physical processes in the atmosphere.

In a first step the model data and its cyclone climatology for the current climate is compared to the interim reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ERA Interim). Cyclone strength, position and tracks are investigated for systematic differences and the capabilities of the model to represent the current cyclone statistics are discussed.

In a second step model data for the last 30 years at the end of the 21st century are analyzed. Changes in strength, location and tracks of the cyclones compared to the current climatological values are investigated. A comparison of dynamical processes sheds light on the nature of the changes and highlights potential reasons for the identified shifts.