Potential insurance losses from a major tornado outbreak: the 1974 Super Outbreak example

The April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak of tornadoes produced over 2,300 square km of tornado damage across 13 states in less than 18 hours. The tornadoes in this event have been thoroughly documented, allowing detailed analysis of the tornado and downburst hazard and probable effects on structures. Each of the 148 tornadoes were digitized and segmented to represent the variation in F-rating within each path at a high resolution. This information was linked to an engineering model of the effects of wind and debris loads on structures and city-block level estimates of insured property to assess them impact this outbreak’s recurrence would have on today’s property insurance industry. Loss statistics by various meteorological, geographical, economic, and actuarial perspectives will be presented.