Session 9 Modeling and Verification

Thursday, 7 October 2004: 8:00 AM-12:00 PM
Host: 11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace
Organizers:
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, R/FS1, Boulder, CO and Jennifer L. Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL

Papers:
8:00 AM
9.1
Preliminary results of WRF model performance as a step towards the NCEP Rapid Refresh cycle
Tatiana G. Smirnova, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and S. G. Benjamin
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (178.6 kB)

8:15 AM
9.2
The design and evaluation of a measure of forecast consistency for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/SFL, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (329.9 kB)

8:30 AM
9.3
Current Icing Potential (CIP) severity index
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Chapman, B. G. Brown, and J. L. Mahoney
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (354.6 kB)

8:45 AM
9.4
New verification approaches for convective weather forecasts
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. R. Bullock, C. A. Davis, J. H. Gotway, M. Chapman, A. Takacs, E. Gilleland, J. L. Mahoney, and K. Manning
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

9:00 AM
9.5
Hierarchy of microphysical parameterizations suitable for cloud and mesoscale forecast models
William D. Hall, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Rasmussen and G. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

9:15 AM
9.6
Explicit model forecasts of supercooled water and application to icing case studies from research field campaigns
Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Rasmussen and I. Geresdi
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
9.7
Development of NCEP's Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model within WRF: Description and forecast guidance
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pyle, Z. Janjic, and H. Y. Chuang
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (684.5 kB)

9:45 AM
9.8
Defining observation fields for verification of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP): Part 2
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, OAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Seseske, J. E. Hart, M. P. Kay, and B. G. Brown
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (881.8 kB)

10:00 AM
9.9
Coffee Break

10:30 AM
9.10
Numerical simulations of the wake of Kauai with implications for the Helios flights
T. P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Sharman, R. G. Frehlich, J. M. Brown, J. T. Madura, and L. J. Ehernberger

Presentation PDF (243.2 kB)

10:45 AM
9.11
Aviation forecast products using the 10-km meso-scale model (MSM)
Jun Ryuzaki, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Yamada, S. I. Takada, A. Kudo, and K. Niimi
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (96.4 kB)

11:00 AM
9.12
AUTOTREND – Automated guidance for short-term aviation weather forecasts
Albert J.M. Jacobs, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; and N. Maat

Presentation PDF (313.2 kB)

11:15 AM
9.13
Assimilation of METAR cloud and visibility observations in the RUC
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. M. Brown, T. L. Smith, T. Smirnova, W. R. Moninger, B. Schwartz, E. J. Szoke, and K. Brundage
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (755.3 kB)

11:30 AM
9.14
An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Aerodromes
Ross Keith, Bureau of Meteorology and James Cook Univ., Townsville, Australia; and S. M. Leyton
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (78.3 kB)

11:45 AM
9.15
An introduction to NCEP SREF aviation project
Binbin Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, J. McQueen, G. Dimego, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, Z. Toth, H. Juang, M. Hart, J. Han, and J. Du
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (506.3 kB)

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