Monday, 4 November 2002: 2:50 PM
Effects of Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery
The significant ozone losses observed after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo
have been shown to be caused by an enhancement in the sulfate aerosol
levels. It has been suggested that the aerosols produced as a result of
large volcanos in a future climate made colder due to greenhouse gas
emissions could strongly affect future ozone recovery. The effect of
future volcanic eruptions on ozone recovery has been studied with an
interactive 2D chemistry-radiation-dynamics model, which takes into
account the time varying chlorine loading as well as cooling due to
increasing carbon dioxide. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been
carried out, in which volcanos having the characteristics of the Mount
Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at ten year intervals.
Compared to a nonvolcanic run, transient reductions of globally averaged
column ozone of 2-3% were computed as a result of each of these
eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the nonvolcanic
case in about five years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic
column ozone losses of from 10 to 18% also recovered to the nonvolcanic
case within five years. These results suggest that the long term recovery
of ozone would not be strongly affected by volcanic eruptions. Of note is
the fact that the response of stratospheric ozone to volcanic eruptions
computed here disagrees with the results of Tie and Brasseur [1995], who
computed ozone increases after large volcanic eruptions during future
years with reduced chlorine loading.
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