NEXRAD in space: A possible solution to the hurricane intensity forecast problem

Hurricane intensity forecasts have improved only modestly over the past 3 decades while track forecasts have steadily improved. Such forecasts are necessary if false alarm rates causing unnecessary evacuation are to be reduced significantly, and if sea surges and damage patterns are to be predicted significantly greater accuracy. A major reason why intensity change prediction has not improved significantly is because of the dependence of intensity forecasts on the energy-containing structures internal to the larger storm vortex. Such structures are not well defined by the current observation systems in place. The Nexrad in Space (NIS) is the conceptual design of a space-based geostationary Doppler radar that has recently completed the initial phase of design at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It would have the ability to independently observe Doppler wind, reflectivity factor and spectral width with good three-dimensional spatial and temporal resolution over a large scan volume spanning the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico and western tropical Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific.. The instrument would potentially infuse critical observations into tropical cyclone assimilation and prediction models that would result in improvements to intensity prediction. The first Nexrad in Space Workshop was held in Miami last April where many of the tropical cyclone research and prediction community gathered to interact with design engineers of NIS to offer design suggestions and contemplate the usefulness of NIS as a possible solution to the hurricane intensity prediction problem. In this talk, the NIS design, completed Observational System Simulation Experiments of the instrument's influence on TC prediction, and a summary of NIS workshop white paper will be presented.