We will build on the existing Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, which already has multiple parameterization options for atmospheric processes such as convection, radiation, planetary boundary layer, and microphysics. One of our key model development efforts is to couple the WRF model with our newly developed, ensemble representation of the land surface, i.e., the Noah land surface model that was first enhanced with biophysical and hydrological realism and then equipped with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) for a wide spectrum of physical and ecological processes. The Noah-MP LSM is capable of generating thousands of process-based combinations of land surface parameterization schemes as opposed to the traditional approach that utilizes only a single combination. Offline Noah-MP tests show a great potential of the model in ensemble hydrological predictions.
We will perform an analysis of the sensitivity to different parameterizations over the conterminous United States using the single integrated mesoscale modeling framework described above. To prove the concept, we will present an ensemble of multi-day integrations using the model at 10-km resolution with varying physical representations for both the land surface and the atmosphere. The lateral boundary conditions are from reanalysis data. Specifically, we will focus on understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between groundwater, soil moisture, vegetation, surface energy and water fluxes, atmospheric boundary layer, convection, mesoscale circulation, and precipitation.