11B.3 Modelling of deep convective clouds and orographic triggering of convection during the COPS experiment (2008

11B.3

Modelling of deep convective clouds and orographic triggering of convection during the COPS experiment

Ralph Burton, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. Gadian, V. H. Smith, and S. D. Mobbs

The COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study) was

an international campaign, the field phase of which took place in the

Black Forest, Germany, in July-August 2007. 15th July 2007 brought a

major, isolated, deep convective cloud to the region. This paper will

concentrate upon the ability of a numerical forecast model (WRF) to

simulate this convective cloud, in terms of cloud extent, location and

temporal duration; additionally WRF will be used to demonstrate the role

of the locally complex topography upon the cloud formation. Model

sensitivities to initialisation (in terms of surface moisture, etc.) and

grid resolution will be examined. Results from WRF will also be compared

with observational data (in particular AWS measurements), a wealth of

which were collected during COPS. The ability of WRF to capture a

complex, isolated convective cloud event is of importance in forecasting

deep convective clouds - and hence to predicting isolated and severe

storms.