P1.5
Future Climate Change over Korea under Global Warming using Dynamical Downscaling Technique
Yu-Mi Cha Sr., Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and K. O. Boo and W. T. Kwon
In order to project a detailed change over Korea under future global warming, dynamical downscaling has been applied. Regional climate simulation has been done by MM5 from AOGCM (ECHO-G) outputs based on A2 scenario with greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing only and A1B scenario with GHG plus sulfate aerosol forcing. The datasets cover the whole domain of Korea during the period of 1971-2100 in a 27km horizontal resolution.
The simulated temperature and precipitation during the reference period of 1971-2000 reproduce the realistic features although these have cold and dry bias over Korea. According to the future projection, mean state of Korean climate based on future scenarios will be warmer and wetter in the coming 21st century. Global warming will not only have an influence on mean climate but also significantly extreme at the regional scale. Further, hot events will be severe and frequent while cold events will occur less often and be warmer in the analysis of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall events in summer during the period 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 under A2 scenario show that the number of days with heavy precipitation (above 50 mm/day) shows outstanding increase in the northern region over Korea and frequency of weak rainfall has regional variability. This is due to the moisture supply driven by northeastward inflows from the south Asian summer monsoon region.
Finally, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is driven from precipitation, evapo-transpiration, soil water recharge, run-off and water loss, have been analyzed to assess the drought conditions over Korea in future climate. Negative peak of PDSI change appears in the southern part of Korea corresponding to the area of large reduction in precipitation. This result indicates the potential for enhanced drought occurrence. The result reflects the possibility that extreme events such as a drought and a flood are likely to occur over the northern and southern part of Korea under global warming.
Acknowledgement : This research is supported by a project, “metri-2008-B-5”.
Poster Session 1, Applied Climatology Poster Session One w/ Ice Breaker Reception
Monday, 11 August 2008, 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Sea to Sky Ballroom A
Previous paper Next paper