an international campaign, the field phase of which took place in the
Black Forest, Germany, in July-August 2007. 15th July 2007 brought a
major, isolated, deep convective cloud to the region. This paper will
concentrate upon the ability of a numerical forecast model (WRF) to
simulate this convective cloud, in terms of cloud extent, location and
temporal duration; additionally WRF will be used to demonstrate the role
of the locally complex topography upon the cloud formation. Model
sensitivities to initialisation (in terms of surface moisture, etc.) and
grid resolution will be examined. Results from WRF will also be compared
with observational data (in particular AWS measurements), a wealth of
which were collected during COPS. The ability of WRF to capture a
complex, isolated convective cloud event is of importance in forecasting
deep convective clouds - and hence to predicting isolated and severe
storms.
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