Climatological Analysis of European Heat Wave and Drought Events

Heat wave and drought events in Western Europe pose a significant threat to agricultural, social and economic infrastructures on local, national and regional scales, as demonstrated in the epic event of 2003. Analysis of a 56 year record of daily climate data is used to develop a better understanding of the anatomy of European heat waves and droughts. This research effort emphasizes synoptic scale features, teleconnections, regional feedback mechanisms associated with drought. The role of key atmospheric and surface variables (e.g. precipitable water, precipitation rates, soil moisture, etc…) has been evaluated to design a composite temporal and spatial representation of the evolution of drought in Western Europe. An evaluation of European drought conditions with Atlantic air-sea interactions and teleconnections with the West African Monsoon is presented. Later analysis is performed in order to determine the impact of large scale forcing on drought in Europe. The proposed statistical model of European heat wave and drought development can be used in an operational forecast mode which aims at determining the severity and spatial characteristics of drought.