Evaluation of future Orographic Precipitation in western Norway using a Linear Model

A recently developed Linear Model (Smith and Barstad, 2004; JAS) has been used to downscale Orographic Precipitation in western Norway. The model has a small computational demand and is hence very appropriate for the downscaling of large numbers of coarse gridded global simulations.

The Linear Model, evaluated in several papers, has been especially successful in dealing with extreme precipitation intensities. Scenario simulations for western Norway over the 2046-2065 and 2080-2100 time slices have been performed and investigated. The area is of special interest due to its strong orography and synoptic advective systems.

The downscaling, based on 14 IPCC models, indicates an increase of moist flux, but IPCC models do not agree on the reason for this increase. Results of this investigation will be presented.