Seasonal snowpack prediction in the Columbia River Basin

Water management in the western United States is increasing in importance due to increasing demands on the water supply. Water managers must balance the needs of many competing users to maintain both water quantity and quality. Because 75% of the precipitation in the western United States falls as snow, estimates of 1-April snow pack are essential for scheduling the release of water from the reservoirs. In this paper, estimates of 1-April snowpack in the Columbia River basin are predicted using multiple teleconnection indices. Teleconnections, persistent patterns of hemispheric-scale climate anomalies, help describe climate variability in the western United States. Previous studies have studied the relationship between and individual teleconnection and snowpack; however, this study uses four teleconnections and 1-January snowpack estimates from SNOTEL stations in the Columbia River Basin to predict 1-April snowpack, thereby increasing the amount of time water managers have to make decisions. Analysis of predictions from individual SNOTEL stations show that different teleconnections affect each station differently based on factors such as location, elevation, slope and aspect. Results show that using teleconnections improves predictive skill compared to simply using snowpack data alone.