During September 2003 our team of NASA, NOAA, and US EPA researchers demonstrated a prototype tool for improving fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts using satellite aerosol observations. Daily forecast products were disseminated via a web interface to a small group of forecasters, representing state and local air management agencies, and the EPA, to improve their knowledge of synoptic scale aerosol pollution events. Forecast products were generated from a near-real-time fusion of multiple input data streams. The demonstration was timed to help improve the accuracy of the EPA's AIRNow next-day PM2.5 Air Quality Index forecast, which began on October 1, 2003. Our prototype has been expanded and operated throughout the summer of 2004 to enhance AIRNow AQI forecasts and to support multi-agency efforts to forecast fine particles during field studies. We illustrate the capability of this approach for evaluating large scale aerosol pollution outbreaks with a case study made possible because the daily data fusions are retained in an archive for assessments and retrospective studies.
The IDEA project addresses other needs of federal air quality decision making, including the improvement of air quality models through data assimilation or observation-based boundary conditions. US EPA utilizes air quality simulation models for developing policy and regulations associated with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), including the development of control strategies. Long range transport of air pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter is not well defined from the current monitoring of surface distributions, and present models do not represent lateral and vertical boundary conditions realistically. Our work suggests that regional air quality model simulations may be greatly improved when upper and lateral boundary air pollutant data from satellites are used to describe the influx of pollutants, are used as upper boundary conditions, and are used to account for the contributions of pollutants transported over larger distances.
Further, IDEA evaluates existing satellite observations of air pollutants in relation to the surface monitoring networks. This evaluation identified surface-based environmental monitoring networks as a rich potential source of validation data for satellite observations. In return, near-surface or boundary layer pollutant retrievals from satellite observations can also contribute to environmental monitoring in locations where the surface monitoring network is sparse or absent. Our collaborations have provided opportunities at the working level to suggest improvements in the air quality observations and modeling systems used today.
The IDEA project demonstrates one approach to leveraging the nations satellite observation capability, operational forecasting skill, and air quality analysis for public benefit.