The nonlinear simulations are limited to considering whether nonlinear advection favors nonmodal growth (NG) or normal mode baroclinic instability. Calculations test several mean flows and initial condition amplitudes and structures that approximate observed traveling, but not developing, localized troughs. Linearly unstable normal modes are excluded from the ICs and that allows tracking of how quickly growing structures are created by nonlinear advection. We emphasize ICs with mid or upper tropospheric isolated troughs and sufficient amplitude to have either an “open wave” or a “closed contour” in the total streamfunction. Results for selected ICs and basic flows find little NG. Adjacent to the original trough, structures appear soon into the integration whose properties are more consistent with normal mode growth than with NG. Projecting the solution onto eigenmodes finds strong initial amplification of unstable normal modes by the nonlinear terms. In nonlinear integrations eddies evolve towards horizontal sizes that are greater than the linearly most unstable normal mode. Larger initial amplitude leads to faster breakdown of the localization. A leading upper high and trailing lower high form and the IC trough develops upstream-tilt; properties similar to observed cyclogenesis.
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