Wednesday, 11 June 2003: 4:15 PM
Thermodynamic coupling and predictability of tropical sea surface temperature
Air-sea coupling involves the exchange of both momentum and heat between
the atmosphere and the ocean. Dynamical coupling, which relates to the
momentum exchange, is believed to play the dominant role in the tropics,
especially in phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the
Tropical Pacific. However, thermodynamic heat exchange between the
atmosphere and the ocean also plays a significant role in tropical air-sea
coupling. This is especially true in the Tropical Atlantic, where dynamic
coupling may be of secondary importance. In this study, we analyze the
role of thermodynamic air-sea coupling using an atmospheric general
circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability
experiments using observed sea surface temperature (SST) initial
conditions show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant
role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical
Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. Thermodynamic coupling is also
sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST
in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence
forecasts, given the knowledge of tropical Atlantic SST as well as
tropical Pacific SST during the previous winter.
Supplementary URL: