The NCAR Short-term Lightning Alert System

Weather forecasters within the U. S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) are responsible for providing timely weather forecasts and issuing critical warnings of hazardous conditions in support of range testing of various materiels (e.g., equipment, missiles, or explosives) as well as routine range activities. During convective weather outbreaks, lightning poses a serious threat to human safety and to materiel that are exposed to the elements. To support Army Test Range forecasters, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed and is now enhancing a lightning prediction system for very short-term (0-30 minutes) total lightning forecasts. As part of the NCAR AutoNowcaster (ANC), a fuzzy logic based lightning forecast system was created that utilizes radar reflectivity characteristics, environmental information, and total lightning signatures. The system highlights those storms that have the potential to generate cloud-to-ground and in-cloud lightning as well as those storms that are actively producing lightning. Typically, the system provides a few minutes of lead time to forecasters before first occurrence of lightning. In addition, location-specific warnings of the potential for lightning occurrence (e.g., within a mission-critical distance of a test site) can be deployed within this forecast system. The presentation will discuss the lightning prediction and alert systems currently deployed at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) and the Electronic Proving Ground (EPG) as well as a new installation that is underway at the Redstone Test Center (RTC). Moreover, potential new applications of this lightning alert system will be discussed for other operational facilities that are impacted by convective storms, such as airport gate operations and space launch facilities.