Enhancements in convective weather forecasting for NAS Traffic Flow Management (TFM)

During the summer of 2010, the FAA Aviation Weather Group sponsored an operational evaluation of two convective weather forecasts: CoSPA and LCH. These forecasts were provided to multiple FAA air traffic management facilities and Airline Operation Centers from June through October. LCH, which stands for the LAMP-CCFP Hybrid, is an overlay of two National Weather Service generated forecasts onto a single display (available on the web). CoSPA, on the other hand, is an FAA sponsored, developmental forecast, designed specifically for aviation and NAS Traffic Flow Management. The FAA plans to continue sponsoring the development of CoSPA and the maintenance of a live prototype.

For the 2010 operational evaluation, an FAA led team performed detailed evaluations at many field sites including detailed observations of forecast use as well as user interviews. In addition, the quality and impact of the forecasts were independently analyzed. This approach yielded four assessments: the Operational Suitability Assessment, the Benefits Assessment, the Quality Assessment, and the Traffic Impact Assessment. This presentation will summarize the results of each assessment and address the estimated impact of the forecasts on NAS traffic flow management in 2010.

This presentation will also discuss the continued operation of the CoSPA live prototype and plans for additional development and evaluation.