JP1.14 Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation runs in the Southeast U.S. and their potential impact on agriculture

Monday, 20 June 2005
Robert F. Banks, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; and J. J. O'Brien and S. R. Smith

Consecutive days of precipitation (precipitation runs) in the southeast U.S. are evaluated for spatial and temporal variations. A 55-year dataset of daily precipitation totals from selected stations across the study area is used to identify precipitation runs. Potential impacts from variations in consecutive days of precipitation on agricultural yields in the southeast U.S. are discussed. An increase or decrease in precipitation runs may benefit or adversely impact agricultural yields; therefore, understanding the probability of precipitation run occurrence by season is important for agricultural purposes. The mitigable economic value of crop yields in the Southeast U.S. could be better predicted with improved precipitation run statistics.

Time series analysis reveals a north-south gradient of precipitation runs in the Southeast. The N-S gradient can be separated into three regions, each of which have their own pattern for precipitation runs annually and seasonally. Intra-annual to inter-decadal signals are found at various stations, but they are not coherent within the three regions.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner