Evaluating long-term trends in mountain snow measurements using a hydrologic model

Previous work has identified declines in mountain snowpack in much of the West during the 20th century. These trends are broadly consistent with advances in the timing of spring snowmelt and phenological indicators, but there are also concerns that changes in site characteristics (e.g., encroachment of the forest canopy) may locally influence trends. Using a simulation of snow for the western US by the VIC hydrologic model, this presentation will illustrate which aspects of the observed trends can be attributed to trends in precipitation or temperature, and suggest locations where local factors may be at play.