15C.4
The impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Jingyun Zheng, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Q. Ge and Z. Hao
Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the phenology observation network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the changes of plant phenology in spring and the impact of the warming trend on the phenophases of plants in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophases in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of warming trend on geographical distribution models of phenophases is studied as well. The results show that: (1) the response of phenological advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenological delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenological advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenological advance days decreased with temperature increase amplitude, and the change rate of phenological delay days increased with temperature decrease amplitude. (2) The relation models of phenophases and geographic locations are unstable. With the spring temperature decrease in the south region of Qinling Mountains and increase in many other regions, phenophases advanced in Northeast, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and delayed in the east of Southwest of China and the middle of Changjiang River; While phenological change amplitude reduced with latitude.
Session 15C, Phenology: Climate Variability and Adaptation Issues
Friday, 1 November 2002, 1:00 PM-2:30 PM
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