Extended Abstract (252K)16A.2
A reassessment of climate change and the skiing industry in Southern Ontario (Canada): exploring technical adaptive capacity
Daniel Scott, EC and University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; and G. McBoyle and B. Mills
Previous studies of the potential impact of climate change on the skiing industry in North America, Europe and Australia have not adequately assessed snowmaking as a technical adaptation strategy. To examine the vulnerability of the ski industry in south-central Ontario, Canada to climate variability and change, 18 years of daily ski conditions data were used to calibrate a ski season simulation model that included a snowmaking module with climatic thresholds and operational decision rules based on interviews with ski area managers. Climate change scenarios were developed by temporally downscaling climate variables from three general circulation models (using both IS92a and SRES emission scenarios) with the LARS weather generator (parameterized to local climate stations) for input into a daily snow cover simulation model. In contrast to earlier studies, the results indicate that ski areas could remain operational in a warmer climate, but the economic threshold for additional snowmaking costs remains an important uncertainty.
Session 16A, Tourism
Friday, 1 November 2002, 3:00 PM-5:00 PM
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