11.2
Monitoring Weather Anomalies to Estimate Crop Yield and Production
Curt A. Reynolds, USDA, Washington, DC
The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) relies on several spatial data sources to monitor weather anomalies that affect world-wide production of agricultural commodities. Crop analysts at PECAD use weather data, satellite imagery, and models, combined with ancillary information from in-county sources, FAS attaché reports, wire services, and analyst expertise to determine the impact of adverse weather on national crop production. Some of the weather data and satellite imagery utilized by crop analysts at PECAD are displayed on the Internet on a decadal (ten-day) basis at http://151.121.3.218/rssiws/. These weather maps and time-series graphs are useful in determining the spatial extent and duration of adverse weather over major crop regions in the world. PECAD also automatically introduces weather data and satellite imagery into several different models to estimate soil moisture, crop stage, crop yield, and crop-stress. Crop-stress or hazard alarm models were specifically designed to filter weather information outside the normal range and alert crop analysts of adverse conditions that occur during critical crop stages. Most of the models and computer tools utilized by PECAD were developed by researchers from various U.S. universities and government agencies over the past two decades, but new satellite data and models are constantly reviewed for possible integration into the PECAD's operational crop condition system.
Session 11, Plenary Session: Drought Impacts
Thursday, 31 October 2002, 9:00 AM-10:45 AM
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