P4.14
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT ON AGRICULTURE OF ARMENIA
Valentina Grigoryan, Department of Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia
The territory of Armenia is specific for strongly pronounced vertical alternation of six basic climate types - from dry subtropical up to severe Alpine, and temperature contrasts. In the low-lands the average air temperature in July and August reaches 24-260C, and in the Alpine belt the temperature does not exceed 100C. In January, depending on the height and peculiarities of the relief, the temperature varies within the bounds of 1-130C. In Armenia the absolute maximum and minimum temperatures reach 410C and -420C. In general, Armenia is distinguished by aridity - the average annual precipitation is 592 mm. The majority of the country is considerable lower with only 200-400 mm of precipitation. Duration of the heating period is 120 days, and of the air conditioning - 90 days. One of the most characteristic features of its climate is intensity and abundance of solar radiation, which, accordingly, make 1.46 cal/cm2 and 2500 hours per year. With great effort, some planning and a history of diligence and creating, Armenia has adapted to this dry climate such that the country maintains a large agricultural industry. The climate change on the territory of Armenia is caused mainly by the impact of global climate change, and also by the internal microclimatic changes of anthropogenic origin. Preliminary estimations have shown, that average air temperature in Armenia will increase by 1.70C in 2100, the average annual precipitation will decreased by about 10% (59mm). In the last few years in Armenia changes of climatic characteristics are observed. Because of precipitation reduction and increase of air temperature, the droughts become more frequent and intensive. So, within the summer of 2000 influence of a long drought in territory of Armenia was observed. Exceptionally dry weather persisted in the territory of country. The precipitation was too low - about 20-40 per cent of normal. The air temperature was above the normal on 3-50C, in some regions - on 7-90C. The maximal temperature in Ararat valley was 39-420C. “Atmospheric” drought was combined with “soil” drought. Especially strongly the non-irrigated land was exposed to the drought effect. Until the altitude of 2000 the capacity of efficient soil moisture was about 0. The dry hot weather had negative effect on the yields of crops, especially for the cereals, fruits and potatoes. The damage to the agricultural sector of Armenia from the impact of drought (in 2000) is about 100 million USD. In case of the forecasted climate change, depending on the vegetation period and the altitude of the district, a reduction of soil humidity by 10-30%, of natural humidity provision of various agricultural cultures by 7-13% and an increase of soil moisture deficit by 25-50mm is expected. Under the projected change of climatic characteristics, the efficiency of plant-cultivation in Armenia can be reduced by the 8-14%. The productivity of cereals will be reduced on average by 9-13%, vegetable cultures - by 7-14%, potato - by 8-10%, fruits - by 5-8%. The productivity of a more heat-resistant grapes can grow by 8-10%. The following consequences in pasture cattle-breeding are projected: reduction of the pasture area as a whole and the stocks of their production by 4-10%, including the areas of the most valuable and productive pastures of sub-Alpine and Alpine belts by 19-22%, and also a productivity decrease of mountain hayfields by 7-10%. In this respect a reduction of the number of cattle by 30% and production of cattle-breeding by 28-30% is expected.
Poster Session 4, Poster Session: Plants, Phenology, and Drought
Thursday, 31 October 2002, 12:30 PM-1:30 PM
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