Climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is likely to have substantial impacts on tourism. At the regional scale, it is seldom possible to say with precision what the changes in climate are likely to be. However, given the mechanisms operating, there is a high probability that at most locations temperatures will increase. These increases should impact on tourism both in terms of changed conditions at the destination and at the source. For example, in terms of impacts at the destination, summer holidays may become unpleasantly hot at traditional beach resorts, and insufficient precipitation in the form of snow at low altitudes may severely affect winter sports resorts. Climate changes at the source may encourage tourists to remain closer to home, if summers become warmer and/or drier.

Evaluating the likely magnitude of these impacts is not straightforward. As a starting point, it is suggested that quantifying and understanding the impacts of present-day fluctuations in weather on tourism numbers may aid in our understanding of possible future trends. Here, we use two approaches: first, statistical models of the relationship between fluctuations in weather and the response of tourism were developed and, second, a survey of the perception of climate impacts, and in particular seasonal extremes, was carried out. Four European countries were studied: UK, The Netherlands, Germany and Italy.

Temperature was found to have the greatest influence on international tourism. The optimal summer temperature for attracting tourists to a country was found to be 21oC, with little deviation from country to country. In hot years, tourists tend to prefer domestic to foreign beach holidays. For domestic tourism, warmer temperatures are generally associated with an increase in numbers, except in winter sports regions. There is some indication that weather in the shoulder seasons (spring and autumn) has a greater influence than in winter and summer.

The public perception survey reinforces the results of the statistical analyses. It shows, for example, that an unusually hot summer at home may influence holiday planning, most commonly leading people to decide to remain at home, or in their own country. However, the greatest influence is seen not on the main holiday destination, but on short breaks, which are most likely to be taken in the shoulder seasons.

It is clear that present-day fluctuations in weather have the potential to affect tourism. Proper understanding of these relationships can be an important tool in understanding the sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the industry to climate change.